![]() In fact, the relationship between the EV at any given odds and the EV at even money becomes incredibly simple if we use fractional odds to calculate and plot it instead of decimal ones, like so: ![]() If we compute the MEG for one of the unit-z data points, and then plot a Line of Constant Optimal EG (LOCO EG) across the same range of odds as in the first graph, then it looks like this: Since each bettor has a different bankroll size, we would need to use the Maximum Expected Growth (MEG) to compare the EV available at different odds. Why do you think the curve takes this shape, and is there any significance to it? What if, like with so many of the other questions about sports betting that I’ve investigated, the answer is that it depends on the Expected Growth (EG) available to the bettors? Since the unit-z staking curve very closely matches the real-life data, let’s use Joseph’s method as a reference to represent actual results. Instead, I’ll recreate his graph of the results of EV available vs. To save you from too many complicated formulas, I won’t repeat it here. The not-so-great aspect of his method is that the formula he had to derive to calculate your Maximum Probable EV (or Expected Edge) based on the z-score is quite difficult. What you have here is wonderful for its ease of use and simplicity though.The great thing about this new method is that when he tested its effectiveness against a huge dataset of profitable soccer bets, it estimated the Expected Value (EV) attainable at any given odds much more accurately than the more common unit-loss (i.e., flat staking) and unit-win (i.e., bet “to win” one unit) methods.Įven the creative unit-impact method (introduced by Andrés Barge-Gil and Alfredo García-Hiernaux of the tipster platform Pyckio and published in the Journal of Sports Economics) proved inaccurate at longer odds. I can also track those statistics that way as well, only problem I haven't solved for yet is free bets are essentially the same as pushes, so pushes and free bet losses are the same category lol. Also - free bets, the way I track it is a loss is 0 in the win/loss amount column and a win matches the total payout. But on the rare occasions where I cash out or win an asian handicap, I just enter the total I won, minus the stake for an accurate measurement of profit on that particular bet. I have a stake column, odds column, total payout column. The one thing that I have run in to that I don't see addressed here is how you would address a cash out situation, or if you're making an Asian handicap soccer bet. Plus, I do most of it at work and it looks like work cause its a nice pretty spreadsheet. I find it to be quite valuable as a means of discovering what is working and continuing down those avenues for future bets. Then you can do some cool stuff like specific parameters - for example, for me, I have a row where I calculate wins/losses, win %, net win/loss, avg win/loss, average bet size and avg probability for things like Knicks games, money line parlays, single game parlays. Cool charts that show, for example, my win percentage vs average implied probability by unit size. Hell, I even have a section where I track users I have tailed, win percentage, total won/lost. I also have different statistics broken down by sport, by probability ranges. I track every bet separated by straight bets, parlays, and futures. Also a cool way of learning new things to do in excel Very cool! I had a lot of fun creating my own as well. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER and visit) /r/problemgambling * Gambler's Anonymous Contact Information. ![]() If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER and visit /r/problemgambling /r/sportscontests - Paid and free sports contests.Ģ1+ only./r/sportsbookreview - Review the books you use.Up to $250 or $500 in Bonus Bets Click for Promoĭevigger Tool | Devigger Explanation | Devigger Update Up to $1500 Back in Bonus Bets Click for Promo Up to $1000 Back in Bonus Bets Click for Promoīet $5 Get $200 in Bonus Bets Click for Promoīet $5 Get $250 in Bonus Bets Click for PromoĢnd Chance Free Bet Up to $500 Click for Promo Selling of picks is not allowed here and will be removed by the moderators.Ĭlick here to join our Discord chat Desktop, iOS, and Android apps available! Sportsbook Please try to keep all discussions under the daily threads. ![]() If you want to discuss your individual parlay/bet, individual games or props then /r/sportsbookextra is what you are looking for.
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